Timeline: The First 72 Hours
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This page tracks the conflict and market reactions hour by hour. Understanding the sequence matters — markets don't react to events, they react to the pace of events.
Friday, February 28
approx. 1:15 AM EST — Airstrikes begin. Combination of US missiles, drones, and Israeli fighter jets hit targets across Iran. The operation is dubbed "Epic Fury."
approx. 2:30 AM EST — Trump releases 8-minute video statement. States the purpose of the strikes is effectively regime change.
Pre-market — Oil futures surge immediately. Brent jumps from approx. $67 to $72.80 by Friday close (+2.9%). WTI moves up 2.8%. Gold begins climbing from approx. $5,100.
During the day — Iran confirms strikes are ongoing. Airspace closures across the region. Airlines cancel hundreds of Middle East flights.
Market close — Brent closes at $72.87. Gold at $5,194. Equities mixed — the full impact hasn't been priced yet because Iran hasn't retaliated.
Saturday, March 1
Early morning — Iranian state media confirms Khamenei killed. 40 days of mourning declared, 7-day national holiday.
Morning — Iran retaliates. Missiles and drones launched at seven countries: Israel, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. This is the escalation moment — it went from a targeted strike to a regional war.
Key targets hit:
- Tel Aviv and Haifa (Israel)
- Al Dhafra Air Base, Abu Dhabi (UAE) — 1 civilian killed, 21 drones hit civilian targets
- US Fifth Fleet base, Manama (Bahrain) — Crowne Plaza hotel also hit
- Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) and Kuwait International Airport
- Saudi eastern region targeted, repelled
09:30 AM EST — CENTCOM confirms 3 US service members killed, 5 seriously injured.
Shipping — Tankers begin avoiding Hormuz. Three tankers struck by missiles/drones within 24 hours, including the oil tanker Skylight off Oman. Hapag-Lloyd suspends all Hormuz transits. approx. 170 containerships trapped inside the Gulf.
OPEC+ — Emergency meeting. Agrees to 206,000 bpd increase for April (modest — options ranged from 137K to 548K bpd). Little spare capacity available, and even Saudi/UAE can't easily export with Gulf navigation disrupted.
Sunday night futures open:
- Brent: approx. $79/bbl (+8% from Friday)
- WTI: approx. $72/bbl (+8%)
- Gold: surging past $5,300
- S&P 500 futures: -1.6%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -1.7%
- Dow futures: -600+ points
Sunday–Monday, March 2
Early hours — RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus hit by drone. Projectiles launched from Lebanon toward Israel, sirens across Haifa and Upper Galilee. Conflict widening geographically.
Asia opens:
- Nikkei 225 down as much as 2.66%, settles at -1.37% (58,070)
- Hang Seng dives 2.5% near 26,000
- Shanghai flat (-0.13%)
- EM currencies drop 0.5% — Philippine peso and Taiwan dollar worst hit
Gold — Hits $5,296/oz in early trading, up $102 from Friday. Seventh consecutive monthly gain. Climbed $1,000 in under 60 days.
Insurance — War risk insurers issue 48-72 hour cancellation notices for Gulf shipping policies. Premiums doubling from 0.25% to 0.5%+ of hull value. A $150M container vessel: single-transit premium rises from $375K to $750K.
US pre-market:
- S&P 500 futures: -1.7%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -2%
- Dow futures: -600+
What to Watch Next
- Trump says "four weeks or less" — but Iran is hitting six+ countries. The gap
between stated timeline and actual escalation is widening.
- Hormuz reopening — see 2026-03-02-check-other-funds/oil-and-hormuz. No signs yet.
- Fed silence — no Powell statement yet. See 2026-03-02-check-other-funds/fed-and-rates.
- Buffett's $382B — see 2026-03-02-check-other-funds/who-to-watch. When does he move?