March 6, 2026 — Market Report

Day 8 of the war. February payrolls came in at -92,000 — a shocking miss against the +55,000 consensus. WTI crude surged past $91 intraday, posting the largest weekly gain in futures history (+35.6% since 1983). The S&P 500 hit its lowest close of 2026. Stagflation fears became real.

Jobs: Complete Shock

February nonfarm payrolls printed -92,000 — the worst since the pandemic.

| Metric | Actual | Forecast | Prior (Revised) | |--------|--------|----------|-----------------| | Nonfarm Payrolls | -92,000 | +55,000 | +126,000 (down from 130K) | | Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | | Avg Hourly Earnings (m/m) | +0.4% | +0.3% | — | | Avg Hourly Earnings (y/y) | +3.8% | +3.7% | — | | Avg Duration of Unemployment | 25.7 weeks | — | (longest since Dec 2021) |

Key sectors: Healthcare -28,000 (Kaiser Permanente strike sidelined 30,000+ workers in CA/HI), Construction -11,000 (weather giveback after Jan's +48,000), Federal government -10,000. Third job loss in five months.

Jefferies' Thomas Simons: "A perfect storm of temporary drags, but this is still a poor jobs number even stripping out weather and strike effects."

The War: Day 8 — Qatar LNG Shutdown

The economic fallout from the war reached a new dimension.

QatarEnergy halted LNG production at Ras Laffan after Iranian drone strikes — threatens ~20% of global LNG supply
Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the deceased Supreme Leader) installed as Iran's third Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts under IRGC pressure
Trump called it "unacceptable," demanded "unconditional surrender." Iran's FM rejected negotiations
US struck 1,000+ additional targets — 7-day total now 3,000+. Iranian missile launch capability down 90% from Day 1
43 Iranian naval vessels damaged/destroyed. Israel completed 2,500+ sorties, claimed 80% of Iranian air defenses destroyed
Civilian casualties: 1,100-1,230 Iranians (UNICEF: 181+ children), 6 US soldiers killed (Kuwait, Mar 1), 11+ Israelis

Tariffs: USMCA Exemption

Trump exempted USMCA-covered imports until April 2 — roughly 49% of Mexican imports. Second carve-out after yesterday's auto exemption. Effectively half of affected imports now have temporary relief.

US Markets

Stagflation fears (oil surge + jobs shock) drove equities lower. S&P 500 posted its lowest close of 2026.

| Index | Close | Change | |-------|-------|--------| | S&P 500 | 6,740 | -91 pts (-1.33%) | | Nasdaq | 22,388 | -361 pts (-1.59%) | | Dow Jones | 47,502 | -453 pts (-0.95%) |

Weekly: S&P -2.0% (worst week in 5 months), Dow -3%, Nasdaq -1.2%. VIX surged to 24.

Oil: Historic Weekly Surge

| Benchmark | Price | Change | |-----------|-------|--------| | WTI Crude | ~$91/bbl (intraday) | +12.6% (daily) | | Brent Crude | ~$93/bbl (intraday breach) | Surged |

Weekly return: WTI +35.6% — the largest since futures trading began in 1983. Brent broke $90 for the first time in nearly two years. Wood Mackenzie: sustained Hormuz closure could push to $150/bbl.

Gold

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Spot Gold | ~$5,081-5,097/oz | | Daily Change | -$26 |

Pulling back from all-time highs above $5,400 earlier in the week. Strong dollar capped gains but geopolitical safe-haven demand persisted.

Treasuries

| Maturity | Yield | |----------|-------| | 10-Year | 4.12-4.17% (intraday high 4.17%) |

Yields initially rose on stagflation fears (oil + tariffs) then reversed lower after the weak jobs report. Weekly rise of ~20 bps — called "a dramatic departure from the soft landing narrative."

Asia

| Index | Change | |-------|--------| | Nikkei 225 | 55,621 (+0.62%) | | Hang Seng | ~25,321 (+0.3%) | | CSI 300 | 4,791 (+1.55%) |

KOSPI gave back some of Thursday's +9.63% rebound, falling ~2% on Friday (KST) to ~5,441.

Currencies

| Pair | Rate | |------|------| | USD/KRW | 1,483-1,493 (won weakened, +0.78%) | | DXY | 98.87 (-0.45%) |

Dollar index fell but the won still weakened — Korea's energy risk is being priced into the currency independently.

The Narrative

March 6 was stagflation made concrete. Jobs collapsed at -92,000 while oil posted its biggest weekly surge in history — the worst possible combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation. The S&P's lowest close of 2026 and a -2% weekly decline reflect this.

On the war front, QatarEnergy's LNG production halt opened a new dimension of the energy crisis. If both Hormuz oil and Qatari LNG are disrupted simultaneously, the global energy shock doubles.

For Palace Fund:

Stagflation is materializing. The Fed faces a dilemma — collapsing employment demands rate cuts, but surging oil stokes inflation. Policy uncertainty is at maximum.
$91 oil may be just the beginning. If Hormuz + LNG disruption persists, the $100-150 range arrives quickly. This becomes a global recession catalyst.
Won weakness accelerating. Won weakened even as the dollar fell — Korea's idiosyncratic energy vulnerability is being priced in. Unfavorable for wire transfer timing.
Pre-IPO valuations. Stagflationary environments compress growth multiples. But AI infrastructure demand is somewhat decoupled from macro, so secondary buying opportunities may actually improve.